Gamblers of the world, rejoice! Yes, your most profitable prophet is back, armed with the-way-it-is. Today’s topic: the Super Bowl. I’ve thoroughly crunched all the numbers, weighed all the injuries, picked Uncle Mo’s brain over steak dinner, meditated, vegitated, and flipped a few coins. And I’ve successfully detached the chaff from the wheat. So… here’s the wheat.
The media likes the Colts. This is understandable. Peyton Manning was designed by beings of superior intellect specifically to play this game, and the results of their work are bearing fruit… especially if you’re a Colts fan. He’s absolutely torn apart two of the better defenses in the league on his way to the Super Bowl, to the point that I’m surprised Shannon Sharpe didn’t implore the President to call in the National Guard. The Saints, meanwhile, should have lost to the Vikings, if you listen to those same pundits. This is the game on the surface, as deep as most in the national media will (can) delve.
But not me. I’ve already explained my process. And there’s more to this game.
First, let’s look at those playoff opponents. The Colts beat the Jets, a 9-7 team with a great defense but pedestrian, run-based offense. Their only chance was to stop Peyton Manning. As a terminator-style football robot, this is impossible, hence, the Jets chances of winning were virtually non-existent. This victory was highly expected, and doesn’t surprise Ed Honcho one bit, even in third person.
The Ravens are almost a carbon copy of the Jets (not surprising, since Rex Ryan came to New York from Baltimore), only slightly better on offense and slightly worse on defense. Still, their defense performed better than New York’s, something I believe we can chalk up to Colts’ rust (a month since their last competitive game). Nonetheless, their anemic offense could get nothing going, and Indianapolis had time to work out the kinks before pulling away.
The Saints, on the other hand, had to overcome the Vikings, the most difficult opponent either team played on their way to the Super Bowl. Strong on defense and prolific offensively, they gave the Saints everything they could handle and, as some would argue, should have won the game, and would have had it not been for all the turnovers. Of course, neglected here is the fact that the Saints caused those turnovers, a major part of their game plan, and one I’m sure they’ll take into the game Sunday.
And they thumped the Cardinals in Kurt Warner’s last game. Everyone’s poo-pooing (that’s right) the Cardinals as a below-average opponent, but just a week earlier, they’d knocked off the NFL’s second-hottest team, the Packers, and just last year, were in the Super Bowl. The manner of the Saints demolition should rather signify their qualities as a team, instead of the Cardinals’ weaknesses, but people will think what they want to think.
And it’s important that we examine both teams’ entire body of work. The media tends to take a short-sighted, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately approach to prognosticating, disregarding facts that don’t prove their point (like the return of injured players, for one). If the Colts and Saints were squaring off, let’s say, two months ago, when the Saints were thumping everyone in their paths (including the Dolphins and Patriots, teams the Colts struggled with), and the Colts were staging valiant fourth-quarter comebacks against inferior opponents, who would be the favorite? These are, in essence, the same teams, don’t forget.
Now, as we extrapolate these facts to the game at hand, the Saints are nothing like the two teams the Colts beat to make it to the Super Bowl. You might even call them their opposite… a bizarro Jets/Ravens, as Mad Adam would probably say. Explosive on offense and pedestrian on defense, though with the ability to create turnovers. If you had to pinpoint a strength of the Saints defense, though, you’d say the secondary, especially now that their guys are healthy (Jabari Greer, Tracy Porter, Darren Sharper… even Malcolm Jenkins). Against the Colts, this is a good thing. And when you compare the Colts to the Saints’ last opponent, Minnesota, things stack up well for the Saints too. The Vikings have an exponentially better defense than the Colts, on almost infinite orders of magnitude, especially if Dwight Freeney is restricted or can’t go. And Minnesota’s offense, ranked 5th in the league, was better than Indy’s as well (they finished 9th).
Of course, Minnesota didn’t have Peyton Manning, the crux of the Saints issue.
You can’t blitz Manning. Well, you can, if you like losing. And the Saints like to blitz. This is a conundrum that Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams must try to solve. I’m here to tell you it doesn’t matter. Do the best you can, cause this game’s going to be won or lost on the other side of the ball.
That’s right, it all boils down to New Orleans’ offense vs. Indianapolis’ defense. Indy’s D has improved, but not to the point it can stop the Saints. If the Saints can score in the 30’s, they’ve got a very good chance of winning this game (and seeing as they averaged scoring in the 30’s, you’ve got to like their chances).
Now, let’s look at some non-footballing issues. Most notably, the disrespect card. It’s become the most important motivating factor in sport today. More powerful than your opponent calling you out, more powerful than the greatest pre-game speech, more powerful than the substantial fact that you’re actually playing for a championship… that this is everything you’ve worked for. Nobody likes to be disrespected. And when outcome-predictions lean towards the one-sided, one of the teams is going to feel disrespected. This week, that’s the Saints. And can you blame them for using it as motivation? First, it works. Second, they were 13-0 at one point, and staring down the barrel of a perfect season. And nobody thinks they can win! Don’t be surprised, if they come out victorious, to hear “nobody believed in us!” more than a few times.
And then there’s this; while the Saints will be playing the Colts, the Colts will be playing an entire city, 336,644 strong. So don’t be surprised when you hear that Joseph Addai was tackled by Antoine Dauterieve, a chef at Lamarque’s Deli, or that Brees completed his last pass to Annabelle Pioulard, a city planner, or that Garrett Hartley’s holder is Pierre Desailly, a trumpeter. The Saints are held up on the backs of thousands of tortured fans, and they won’t let them fall. Was there any doubt that Hartley’s game-winning kick against Minnesota was guided straight through the uprights by the collective will of a city that needed it? That had to have it? I think not.
Given these virtually indisputable facts which have forced themselves to be weighed…
New Orleans 36
Indianapolis 34
And that’s the way it is.
Now, all you gamblers out there… quit emailing me, and quit tying up my phone line. I’m an important man, and I’m expecting a call from Uncle Mo any minute now. You’ve got what you came for, do with it what you will.
12 Comments
Saints – 38
Colts – 17
Peyton has only a so-so game. Colts commit at least 2 turnovers and basically get their asses kicked. Think, Monday Night New England game redux.
You read it here first, beeches!
Eddie, did you really think this stinker would be allowed to slide on by?
“The Vikings have an exponentially better defense than the Colts, on almost infinite orders of magnitude…”
Points allowed by Vikes this season: 312
Points allowed by Colts this season: 307
While media types are “disregarding facts that don’t prove their point”, you are ignoring the facts in making yours.
He said that? Man, I stopped reading that wall of text after the 2nd paragraph.
Disregarding, for a moment, that one can tell just by watching them which one is the better defense, let’s delve into the numbers a wee bit to discern just why they played out this way.
Of Indianapolis’ 307 points against…
7 were scored by the Jets special teams on a Brad Smith KO return.
Points given up by Indianapolis defense: 300
Now, of Minnesota’s 312 points against…
7 were scored by the Browns special teams on a Josh Cribbs KO return.
7 were scored by San Francisco on a blocked FG return for TD.
7 were scored by Green Bay’s defense (the first time) on a 42 yard fumble return by Clay Matthews.
14 were scored by Pittsburgh on 2 long returns for TD, a 77 yard fumble return by Lamar Woodley, and a 82 yard INT return by Keyaron Fox.
Points given up by Minnesota’s defense: 277
And that doesn’t include the 3 points they gave up to Green Bay after they fumbled in their own red zone and their defense actually pushed them back (which never happened to Indy).
For perspective, this new discrepancy between the teams is roughly the same as that between Minnesota and the Redskins.
But thanks, PFT, all you’ve done is show how far into the stats I go for the truth.
C’mon Fagcho, stop picking on Tits. We all know the Vikings D would make Colts D they bitch if we stuck them all in the same Roman Bath House.
Somehow I expected a “look who they played” or “their offense/kicking team got scored on” retort.
Still 277 vs. 300 points allowed is not exponentially better.
Chief: “picking on Tits”…I know what you meant but that sounds painful.
Oh but it is, on infinite orders of magnitude.
And if you expected me to retort by proving you wrong… well, you have an interesting approach to picking your battles.
Yeah, Tits, I know. What the hell, it was 2 am and I’d had a couple of Rum-n-Cokes. It sounded pretty sexy then… Unfortunately, LameHonchos best reply was some “orders of magnitude” shit. I can’t help that.
My knee-jerk analysis (and if you haven’t tasted my jerk, you should) says “Peyton Manning hasn’t lost a game he’s actually tried to win this season!! The Colts will facefuck that birthmark right off Brees’ cheek!!”
On the other hand, when our analysts back away from the exaggerated impressions of a casual NFL observer and take a closer look at the numbers, we can see where Breesus’ Saints make a game of it, only to watch from the sidelines as the GOAT in Colt blue assumes the victory formation.
Now, here’s why you’ve got it wrong, Ed:
1. True, the game will likely be determined when the Colts are on defense, but you’ve ignored the impact the Saints scoring defense has on Brees and Co. The Colts will not turn the ball over and give up defensive TDs to Darren Sharper, Scott Fujita, and Jabari Greer. Turnovers killed the Vikings and Cards, but these Colts aren’t as generous. Unless Peyton decides to hold a joint Katrina/Haiti relief benefit on the Super Bowl grass, Captain Smudge On His Face doesn’t get the advantage of playing “run to Pierre or pass to Marques?” with a fat lead. He’s gonna have to throw under pressure, and he will ultimately make mistakes that lead to a turnover at worst or FGs at best. Brees is good, but he cannot go blow for blow with Archie’s best son. We remember what Dallas did.
2. The Saints are content with losing. Saints fans won’t say it, but we will. They’re ecstatic to be in the Super Bowl on the same field with the Greatest Quarterback of All Time, so losing won’t mean that much to them. Peyton Manning’s legacy is at stake, this is his chance to put an end to the Tom Brady lovefest forever. This is his moment to seal the deal as a multiple Super Bowl champion. Sure, the Saints may not get blown out, but He will not be denied.
Indy 31
N.O. 27
Valid points, Chump, but in the end, flawed.
Yes, the Saints rely on turnovers more than most teams, and yes, Archie’s boy probably won’t turn it over very often, if at all (though I should mention the two picks he threw to Ed Reed in the same drive… sure, Reed’s a good player, but so is Sharper, and they play their safety spots the same way), but their receivers and running backs are fully capable of doing so. Only two of Minnesota’s 764 turnovers were by Favre, the others came from their WR’s and RB’s. I would imagine this is a point of emphasis for Gregg Williams.
That being said, I still say the Colts score plenty of points, turnovers or no.
But to downplay the Saints offense as being so heavily supplemented by their defense is risky. Yes, they struggled against Dallas, and Minnesota even, but those defenses, especially how they were playing at the time, are much better than Indy’s. And this is Indy’s without Freeney, or at best with a limited Freeney. If Brees has time, he will pick them apart. And even with all the defensive help, it must be easy to forget that the Saints have also shredded better defenses than the Colts (48@Philly, 46@Miami, 38vsNE). I don’t envision them having any problems scoring points.
I do believe, however, that it’s going to come down to who has the ball last. If Peyton has the ball with 2 minutes remaining and the Colts within one score, Colts win. If NO has it under the same circumstances, I believe the Saints win, though it’s certainly not as much of a slam dunk as the reverse.
As for the satisfaction of the Saints as a city just to reach the Super Bowl, I think you’re way off. The cycle of healing won’t be complete for N’Awlinsers until they win in South Florida… where, of course, Katrina first hit the shores of North America. The Colts still have 8-10 years in the title hunt. The Saints could fade back to 8-8 next year. This is their time.
Oh, Ed.
We love the feel good story as much as the next gay, but we suspect you might’ve caught a mild case of Fleur de Lis fever.
Do not make the same mistake others before you have made about the Indy defense. They are better than you’re allowing here, and they are certainly better than Philly, Miami, and New England. We all saw what the Vikes and Pokes did to the Saints offensive attack, and some of us see a similar outcome in Miami on Sunday because the Colts very much are on par with the Cowboys and Vikings defensively. Not only do the Colts rank eighth defensively with 307 PA, they also rank sixth in yards per play at 5.0 and fourth in net yards gained per pass attempt at 5.5. Both those figures outrank Dallas and Minnesota, by the way.
What we’re trying to say through the hazy Friday night fog of multiple Shiner 101s (good chit!) is this–PFT has it right. The difference between the Cowboys D, Vikings D, and Colts D really isn’t that great. The Saints D, on the other hand, is not very good unless they generate turnovers, which is not likely to happen against Peyton Manning. The Colts will jump out to an early first quarter lead on offense and use that advantage to pressure Brees into drive-stalling plays on defense. The Colts will almost certainly score touchdowns while the Saints trot Hartley out for a few field goal attempts.
uuuuhhhhh…..wilterweight champ, I think Eddie actually got the better of you on this one.